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【卫报】穆迪降低中国评级,向中国发出合理警告


穆迪近日降低了对中国的评级,中国对此不予理会。中国财政部认为穆迪夸大中国经济风险,淡化中国对于改革所做的努力。市场对此反应平平。但是,有分析指出穆迪的做法有一定的合理性。


穆迪降低中国评级,向中国发出合理警告

译者&词汇:李苏苑&赵萌萌

校对:徐嘉茵

策划:邹世昌


China’s feeling Moody about credit downgrade – but caution is justified.

穆迪降低中国评级——向中国发出合理警告。


本文选自 The Guardian | 取经号原创翻译

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Beijing dismissed Moody’s assessment of its economy but after failing to foresee the 2008 crash, the agency now has a point.

穆迪对中国经济作出评估,中国对此不予理会。穆迪未能预测2008年的经济衰退,但该机构目前的做法确实有点道理。

 

It is almost three decades since Beijing was last downgraded by the rating agency Moody’s, and during that period China has been transformed. Since 1989, the year of the Tiananmen square massacre, rapid growth has seen huge progress in the fight against poverty. Compounded growth rates of close to – and in some years higher than – 10% have made China the world’s second biggest economy after the US. At the current rate of progress, it will soon be number one. Few envisaged this when Deng Xiaoping began his reform programme in the late 1970s.

距中国上次被国际信用评级机构穆迪降低评级,已过去了将近三十年。那个时期,中国经历了改革。自1989年,中国经济快速增长,脱贫取得巨大的成就。年均复合增长率近10%(有些年甚至高于10%),中国成为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体。以目前的发展速度来看,中国很快就会成为世界第一大经济体。20世纪70年代末,邓小平发起改革的时候,很少有人能预想到中国会有今天的发展。

 

All of which might perhaps explain Beijing’s rather tetchy response to downgrade. China is not accustomed to having its economic strategy questioned, as the response from the finance ministry made abundantly clear. The tone was dismissive. Moody’s were over-playing the risks and under-playing the country’s reform efforts. Put simply, the rating agency didn’t know what it was talking about.

这些可观的发展现状或许可以解释中国对于信用评级降低的恶劣态度。中国不习惯受到经济政策方面的质疑,财政部的回复已极其清楚,且语气轻蔑。穆迪夸大风险,淡化中国对于改革所作出的努力。简单来说,该评级机构完全不知所云。

 

The rather muted reaction in the financial markets suggests Beijing might have a point. Bonds were unmoved. The Shanghai stock market ended up on the day. Nothing to see here. Move along please.

金融市场上有极小的声音表示中国的表态可能有点道理。债券并未受影响。上海股票交易市场当天出现回调。没什么特别情况出现。请继续向前看。

 

In fact, Moody’s were making a perfectly reasonable point. China’s impressive-looking growth rate has only been possible because of a credit bubble. The authorities have made sure that state-operated enterprises can expand, even when the investment has made little commercial sense. The banks have lent money – not always wisely – for real estate projects.

实际上,穆迪的确言之有理。中国的增长率看似可观,但其出现也只是因为信用泡沫。中央确保国有企业能够发展扩张,甚至在投资没有什么商业意义的时候也要这么做。银行贷款给房地产项目(即使这有时候不是什么明智的做法)。

 

Just like the countries of the developed west in 2008, China could well soon be faced with the situation when it has to step in and bail out its non-performing banks. This would be expensive and would push up China’s relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio.

正如2008年的西方发达国家一样,中国可能很快就将面临困境,到时不得不介入,帮助不良银行摆脱困境。这样做不仅会代价高昂,还会使得中国相对较低的债务占国内生产总值比例上升。

 

Perhaps an even bigger problem is that China’s potential growth rate is weakening. As Mark Williams, of Capital Economics, has noted, loose credit has been used to keep struggling firms afloat rather than being deployed effectively.

也许中国的潜在增长率正在削弱才是更大问题。凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的马克·威廉姆斯指出,宽松信贷已经用来给垂垂欲坠的公司吊一口气,而不是有效配置。

 

To be sure, a reform programme is under way to address this issue but progress – as Moody’s notes – has been slow. There is a reason for this: the authorities in Beijing fear that an over-rapid slowdown in the economy will lead to Tiananmen square-style protests.

可以确定的是,中国已启动一个改革项目来解决这一问题,但是——就像穆迪指出的——进程缓慢。背后有这样一个原因:北京当局害怕过快的放缓经济将导致抗议发生。

 

Like the other rating agencies, Moody’s failed to see the 2008 crash coming. It is being more cautious this time. Justifiably so.

穆迪和其他评级机构一样,没能预见到2008年的经济危机。这次穆迪更加谨慎,这也情有可原。


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<原文链接:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/24/chinas-feeling-moody-about-credit-downgrade-but-caution-is-justified>

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