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【卫报】中国:“破7”的GDP增长 ︱ 取经号


导读


英国文学家狄更斯在其代表作《双城记》中对19世纪高速发展的英国感叹到:这是最好的时代,这是最坏的时代。当我们听到2015年中国GDP增长进入“六”时代的那一刻,我们又想到了什么?让我们一起来听一听分析师们在中国这个转型升级的阵痛期中看到的困难与希望。



正文


China economy grows at slowest pace in 25 years, latest GDP figures show 

最新GDP显示:中国经济增速处25年来最低位



World’s second-largest economy posts figures that add to fears of a slowdown that will affect financial markets across the world


世界第二大经济体刚出炉的数据加剧了世界对中国经济增速减慢的担忧,一旦中国经济疲软,将会影响全球金融市场。


China’s economy grew at its slowest rate in a quarter of a century in 2015, data released on Tuesday showed, increasing pressure on Beijing to address fears of a prolonged slowdown and ease the jitters affecting global markets.


本周二公布的数据显示,中国经济2015年的增长率已经降至25年的最低位。北京方面亟需解决长期经济增速减缓的问题,并缓解由此对国际市场所产生的动荡。 


The full-year growth of 6.9% was only just short of government expectations of 7% but by contrast, growth in 2014 stood at 7.3%.


全年6.9%的增长率虽然只比政府预期的7%低了一点点,但和2014年的7.3%相比则差强人意。


The imminent collapse of the Chinese Ponzi-scheme economy shows that we need to bring control to the international economy 


中国经济就如同一场濒临崩溃的庞氏骗局,因此我们需要对国际经济进行管控。


The national bureau of statistics’ bulletin showed GDP growth at 6.8% in the three months to December, easing from 6.9% in the previous quarter – the slowest quarterly rate since 2009, when growth slowed to 6.2%.


国家统计局公告的数据表明,2015年GDP同比增长6.9%,其中第四季度GDP增长率为6.8%, 是自2009年的6.2%以来的最低季度增长率。


The slide from the previous quarter was expected, but will add to concerns about the health of the world’s second-biggest economy as it confronts a range of challenges, including weak exports, high debt levels and slowing investment.


经济会继上个季度之后继续下滑虽在意料之中,但同时面对出口疲弱、债务高企和投资减缓等一系列的挑战,这更加剧了人们对于世界第二大经济体的担心。


China’s industrial output in December rose 5.9% from a year earlier, compared with forecasts for a 6.0% increase.


中国12月份的行业产值同比增长5.9%,不及之前6.0%的预期值。


The lack of surprises did at least offer some respite to stock and currency markets.


缺乏亮点的数据至少为股市和汇市提供了一个喘息的机会。


MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.2% on Tuesday after earlier touching its lowest level since October 2011. Australian shares added 0.8%, while Tokyo’s Nikkei dropped 0.3%. In Shanghai, recent volatility gave way to a 0.2% rise, following a 13-month low on Monday.


摩根斯坦利除日本之外的亚太区股指此前曾跌至2011年10月以来的最低点,但周二小幅上涨了0.2%。澳洲股市上涨0.8%,日经指数下跌0.3%,上证指数在经历了近期动荡之后也在周一涨了0.2%,但仍处于13个月以来的低位。


The US dollar nudged up 0.2% to 117.55 yen after slipping last week to a four-and-a-half-month low of 116.51.


美元兑日元向上微调0.2%至1:117.55,摆脱了上周116.51的四个半月低点。


Analysts were cautiously optimistic about the China’s fortunes following the tumult of the past few weeks.


在经历过几周的动荡之后,分析师们对于中国的前景持谨慎乐观态度。


“I think that at least the biggest fears about the real economy, fears that came to the surface during the stock market rout … I think those biggest fears were overblown,” said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong.


Louis Kuijs,一位牛津经济研究院的亚洲区主管在香港表示:“我认为对于实体经济的最大担忧在于股市的表现,而这个阶段已经过去了。”


“We don’t see signs of an abrupt slowdown, or something getting worse than we had expected say six weeks ago.”


“我们看不到任何经济会硬着陆的迹象,事情不会比我们6周之前所作出的预期更糟糕。”


Gordon Kwan, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Nomura Holdings, said: “China’s GDP growth is not collapsing, even though the fourth-quarter figures are slightly lower than expectations.”


Gordon Kwan,一位就职于野村控股的香港分析师认为:“即便第四季度的增速比预期值低一点,但中国GDP并没有崩溃。”


Kwan said he expected additional government stimulus, but added that the Chinese economy was “in decent shape, despite the recent hype about how it is on the verge of collapse”.


Kwan预测中央会出台进一步的刺激政策,“近期媒体经常炒作中国经济正处于崩溃边缘,但总体来看市场情况还是过得去的。”


He believed the rest of the world would take positives from Tuesday’s data. “Judging by what’s happening in the markets now, there will be a sigh of relief that quarterly growth was 6.8% and not, say 6%,” he said. “But it’s early days yet – the real test will be the first-quarter GDP figures.”


他认为人们都会从周二的数据里看到比较积极的一面,并表示:“从目前市场形势看来,令人宽慰的是季度增长率是6.8%,而不是 6%。但这还是早期的数据——真正的检验标尺将会是第一季度的GDP数据。”


Policymakers in Beijing have struggled to arrest the slide in China’s fortunes, with some analysts predicting growth of about 6.5% this year even if, as many expect, the authorities unveil fresh spending packages and cut interest rates again.


即使正如许多人预期,当权者又有新支出,并再次调低利率,一些分析师预测大约今年有6.5%的增长率,政府决策者们已经竭力挽救时运不济的中国。


Despite a bounce in stocks and the oil price after better than expected exports last year, Chinese officials forecast more pain as demand falls for their goods 


尽管去年高于预期的出口值使得股市和油价有所回升,但中国官员预计(产能剩余导致的)供过于求会带来更多的难处。


Other industrialised economies would find little to complain about if they enjoyed growth figures approaching those released on Tuesday, but in the Chinese context the data are cause for concern.


倘若增长率接近本周二发布的数据,还差强人意的话,其他工业经济体也没有什么可抱怨的,但是在中国这一环境下,数据仍引人担忧。


Having experienced double-digit growth for more than a decade – during which it replaced Japan as the world’s second-biggest economy – China is now going through a painful period of readjustment as growth inevitably slows.


十余年来,中国经济超过了两位数的增长——在此期间,它代替了日本成为世界第二大经济体——但如今,经济增长放缓已成定局,中国现处于痛苦的调整期。


Its structural transformation from an economy heavily reliant on industrial exports to a more service-oriented one was still in progress, the statistics bureau said in a statement.


中国仍在结构上从工业出口型经济转向服务型经济,统计署如是声明。


It added that China was going through “a crucial period during which challenges need to be overcome and problems need to be resolved and the task of comprehensively deepening the reform is still heavy”.


它又补充道:“中国正经历一个重要时期,在此期间,克服挑战,解决问题,全面深化改革仍任重道远。”

 

China’s economic slowdown and global market jitters are being blamed for another weekly drop in the ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index 


ANZ-Roy摩根消费者信心指数又一次下滑,中国经济的放缓与全球市场的震动也因此备受指责。


China’s uncertain handling of its transition has sent shockwaves around global markets. Shanghai stocks have plunged to 13-month lows despite a massive government rescue package. The central bank, meanwhile, has added to confusion by allowing the yuan to weaken sharply, then intervening to stop the fall.


中国在处理转型上犹疑不决,在全球市场范围内也影响深远。尽管政府大量援救,上海股市也跌至13个月最低。同时,央行先是允许人民币急速跌落,随后又阻止其走跌,如此,反倒更加添乱。


Intervention has done little to ease investor unrest. Despite six interest rate cuts since November 2014, and reductions in the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, high debt levels in the Chinese economy mean the measures have had limited impact.


政府的干预并未缓解投资者的不安。尽管自2014年11月六次利率削减,银行储蓄金减少,中国经济依旧债台高筑,这就表明政府的举措收效甚微。


Analysts predicted more instability for the global economy for the rest of the year. “Regardless of whether Q4 growth was 6.8% or 6.9%, we do not expect full-year GDP to change the evolving narrative about the weak state of global demand,” analysts at PRC Macro Advisors said.


本年内余下的时间里,全球经济会更加不稳定。中国宏观经济分析咨询公司的分析师这样说道, “不管第四季度的增长率是6.8%还是6.9%,我们都不指望一整年的GDP数值去改写全球需求薄弱这一既定的事实。”


外媒简介


《卫报》是英国的全国性综合内容日报, 是一张自由民主派的报纸,代表左翼,读者多是知识界和年轻人。在欧洲知识界,《卫报》的影响力超过了任何一张报纸。


报纸严肃和独立精神的定位也从创刊者泰勒开始。泰勒确立了《卫报》成功传承的三大传统:精确完整的报道标准关注及服务社团的商业利益绝对独立自主的立场,不受党派政治领导人左右


翻译:邓小雪 & 颜琪琳

校对:朱宵芸 & 鲁城华

编辑:杨霭琳




学习笔记


1.Jitter:panic or extreme nervousness;紧张不安

e.g. I always get the jitters before I go on stage. 我登台前总是感到紧张


2. Imminent:happening very soon; 逼近的

e.g. If he was not in imminent danger, they would not take this sort of action. 如果不是因为他随时会有生命危险,他们是不会采取这种行动的。


3. Ponzi scheme:

an investment swindle in which some early investors are paid off with money put up by later ones in order to encourage more and later ones

旁氏(庞兹)骗局:对金融领域投资诈欺的称呼,这种骗术是由一个叫查尔斯·庞兹(Charles Ponzi)的投机商人“发明”的。庞氏骗局在中国又称“拆东墙补西墙”,“空手套白狼”。简言之就是利用新投资人的钱来向老投资者支付利息和短期回报,以制造赚钱的假象进而骗取更多的投资。


4.Tumult:a state of noisy confusion or disorder; 骚乱

e.g. Our voices are drowned out in the general tumult and clamor. 我们的声音被淹没在大众的吵闹和喧哗中。


5. Nudge:to push (sth.) gently; 微移

e.g. Beijing has plenty of good reasons to nudge manufacturing wages higher. 中国有很多理由要求提高制造业工资水平。


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